Hoop Teens: From High School to NBA riches?

This is the fourth in a five-part series reviewing the NBA draft since 2005.

The number of freshmen selected in the first round of the 2008 NBA draft (10) increased by two from 2007. That means one out of every three selections in the first round was a freshman who conceivably could have already been in the league had it not been for the age limit. The first five freshmen taken would almost certainly have been good enough to enter the draft straight from high school.

In order, the freshmen selected in ’08 were: No. 1 Derrick Rose, No. 2 Michael Beasley, No. 3 O.J. Mayo, No. 5 Kevin Love, No. 7 Eric Gordon, No. 11 Jerryd Bayless , No. 14 Anthony Randolph, No. 19 J.J. Hickson, No. 23 Kosta Koufos, and No. 28 Donte Greene. Thus, seven of the 14 lottery picks by NBA teams were spent on one-and-done players, an increase of one from 2007.

Rose, Beasley, Mayo, Love, and Gordon all played significant roles and averaged double figures in scoring in their first seasons. Rose (AP photo) was named the Rookie of Year and helped his Chicago Bulls stretch the defending champion Boston Celtics to a Game 7 in the first round of the playoffs. Mayo led all rookies in scoring at 18.5 points per game.

Chicago Bulls point guard Derrick Rose won the 2008-09 NBA Rookie of the Year award while averaging 16.8 points and 6.3 assists per game.

Despite their fast success, the top two players from last year’s draft have not been able to avoid controversy over their one-year college careers. The NCAA is investigating Memphis‘ basketball program over allegations that Rose’s SAT results were tampered with. Meanwhile, USC is also under investigation for allegations that former coach Tim Floyd paid money to an adviser who then steered Mayo to the Trojans. Both schools could face serious punishments, including the vacating of Memphis’ brilliant 2008 season. The Tigers won an NCAA regular season-record 38 games that season and advanced all the way to the national championship game.

It is likely that similar investigations will continue to pop up every now and then until the NBA and NCAA find a better solution to the current rules. For players who just want to play basketball and begin their pro careers, college can be seen as a waste of time at this point in their lives. Many only go because it’s the next stepping stone. The growing number of one-and-done players hurts both the college and pro game. Top schools lack continuity in their programs and constantly have to decide the risks and rewards of taking on a one-and-done player. Meanwhile, NBA teams get players who are high on talent but low on experience.

Here are the number of selections in the ‘08 draft based on experience (first-round total in parenthesis):

- Freshmen: 12 (10)
- Sophomores: 9 (8)
- Juniors: 8 (3)
- Seniors: 19 (5)
- Foreigners: 11 (4)
- NBDL: 1

For the ’08 draft, 35% of the players taken were underclassmen (sophomores or lower). A whopping 60% of the first-round picks were either freshmen or sophomores. It is probably safe to say that the 2008 draft is the beginning of a new era where we will see the majority of first-round picks be spent on freshmen or sophomores. The most talented players will usually come out early and NBA teams will want to snatch them up before going for more polished upperclassmen. The league will covet youngsters because teams can lock them in for three years on the rookie pay scale, saving them millions of dollars before they finally have to spend the kind of cash worthy of star players.