Six stars on the NBA's Final Four teams in '09 came directly from high school. Still, many warn that they miss important life lessons by skipping college.
This is the part where I say goodbye, so here it goes…
I chose to do this project because its deals with an issue that is timely and current. The NBA changed its age limit starting with the 2006 draft. Up until 2005, players could be drafted right after high school. The new rule made it so that players had to be one year removed from their high school graduation and 19 years of age to enter the draft. In my opinion, this rule change is discriminatory and prevents 18-year-olds, who are of course legal adults, from pursuing their professional careers and earning a living.
A big part of the reason why I chose to pursue this project was the pioneering move made by Brandon Jennings last year. Jennings failed to pass the entrance exam in order to attend college, and with the NBA not an option, he chose to skip school and sign with a pro team in Italy. Jennings played there for one season, made over $1 million dollars and entered the draft this year. He was taken with the 10th overall pick by the Milwaukee Bucks. I find his story very interesting and it really makes me wonder why the NBA would be willing to let talented players like Jennings start their careers overseas. I truly believe that more and more players will do what Jennings did. Case in point, a San Diego standout named Jeremy Tyler is forgoing his senior year of high school to play in Europe for two seasons before entering the draft. What’s to stop even younger players from turning pro overseas and making good money?
This project matters because it deals with class; many of these players come from impoverished backgrounds. It deals with race; many of these players are African-American. Finally, it deals with education; many of the elite high school talents don’t really want to go to college, but only do so because of the NBA’s policy. This leads to three things: it makes a mockery out of college basketball, it severely hurts academic integrity, and it dramatically increases the chances of recruiting violations.
The number of “one-and-done” players hurts college basketball because it makes it very hard for programs to maintain continuity and sustain success, not to mention brings down the level of play. It also forces schools to think long and hard about the risks versus the rewards of taking on players who may attend for just one season. Academic integrity is hurt because “one-and-dones,” especially if they already know they’re declaring for the NBA, will only take their fall semester of classes seriously. The spring semester doesn’t matter because in their eyes, they’ll be in the league come summer. Even for players who leave for the NBA after their sophomore or junior seasons, very few end up making up the coursework to earn their degrees. In fact, four out of fiveretiredNBA players (currently the average retirement age is 27) don’t have college degrees. When players don’t finish school, it hurts graduation rates among athletes and causes the loss of scholarships. Finally, perhaps the biggest drawback to players going to college who don’t really want to, are recruiting violations that can ruin a school’s program for many years. Two of the top NBA rookies from this past season, Derrick Rose and O.J. Mayo, are at the center of NCAA investigations into improprieties at the schools they attended, Memphis and USC respectively. The number of violations and investigations will only rise as long as talented players are made to delay their professional careers by one year.
I hope that my project contributes to society by showing people how unfair the NBA was on changing a policy that had done just fine since 1971. That year, Spencer Haywood successfully sued the NBA for the right to play in the league without being four years removed from high school graduation, which was the policy at the time. After Haywood’s U.S. Supreme Court victory, high school players and college underclassmen were allowed to enter the NBA draft.
Clockwise are the Magic's Rashard Lewis and Dwight Howard, the Cavaliers' LeBron James, the Lakers' Kobe Bryant and Andrew Bynum, and the Nuggets' J.R. Smith. What do they have in common? All are key contributors on the NBA's final four teams from this past season and all entered the league directly from high school. (AP photos)
To be fair, there have been some colossal busts drafted directly out of high school. Further, some of the preps taken over the years lacked the emotional and physical maturity to truly succeed. However, the very same criticisms can be made of more experienced prospects. I would hope that my project helps people realize that if someone has the talent, they should be able to pursue whatever it is they excel at, no matter their age. If a 10-year-old is smart enough to gain admission to college, and a 90-year-old is still sharp enough to serve as the District Attorney for New York (Robert Morgenthau), then what’s the big fuss over an 18-year-old trying to play professional basketball?
The age limit should be done away with and the NBA should heed the passionate words of Sonny Vaccaro, one of my interview subjects for this project: “If the professional bodies, the pro teams themselves, don’t think these kids can do it, don’t draft them. Don’t employ them!”
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It’s been a long and eventful summer but I’ve definitely enjoyed the ride. Here are links to the main parts of my project:
- Review of the last five NBA drafts: An analysis of the players selected from 2005, the last draft to allow entry to high schoolers, through to this year. Here are my findings:
With today being my soft deadline, the following three items are still being pursued:
1) An interview with Spencer Haywood, who made history in 1971. Haywood challenged in court the NBA’s rule that players had to be four years removed from high school. The U.S. Supreme Court ruled in his favor and he paved the way for scores of underclassmen to enter the NBA.
I have been in contact with Haywood here in the last week but our schedules have conflicted. I’m aiming to interview him and post our talk by next Friday, the hard deadline for any revisions on this project.
2) A Q&A via email with Brandon Jennings. If you’ve followed this project at all, then you know about the role Jennings has played. He became the first player to skip college to play in Europe for one season before being drafted into the NBA. Others are already following his lead.
Questions have been forwarded to Jennings’ agent and I’m hoping to hear back from him (with a little help from Sonny Vaccaro). Hopefully, I will have something by next Friday.
3) Email interviews with the athletic directors of two high-profile NCAA Division I program about how the NBA’s age limit impacts the college game. I also want to find out how their schools deal with recruiting potential “one-and-dones,” what changes they would advocate, and whether or not the feel that academic integrity is being compromised.
I am awaiting a response from one school’s A.D., while still trying to covince the other A.D. to talk to me. I’ll see what I can land by next Friday.
***
I hope to have at least some, if not all, of this material here in the next week and I want to thank everyone who read and followed my project throughout the summer!
Over the past few days, Maurice Clarett’s name has re-emerged in the news. The former Ohio State running back is currently in prison and was being talked about in the media because of his decision to withdraw his request for early release. Clarett was sentenced in Sept. 2006 to serve at least 3 1/2 years in prison for charges of aggravated robbery and carrying a concealed weapon.
He was seeking clemency in order to try a football comeback as soon as possible, perhaps even in the NFL. With the chances of an early release very unlikely, and the possibility of parole sometime next year for good behavior, Clarett decided to stick it out.
You might be wondering how Clarett relates to the NBA’s age policy. The correlation goes back to the bold decision he made in 2003. After being suspended by Ohio State for the 2003-04 season for rules violations, Clarett sued the NFL for the right to enter its draft. League rules specify that in order to be eligible for the NFL draft, a player is required to be either three years removed from their high school graduation or graduation of the class year with which they entered high school, whichever is earlier.
“He was precluded from playing at Ohio State because of supposed NCAA violations,” says Alan Milstein, Clarett’s lawyer in the case. “He had no other place to go. He was ready to play football. They were ready to hire him. And he just needed to get into the draft.”
In 2002, Clarett came to Ohio State highly-touted and almost immediately showcased his talent as he became the first Buckeye freshman to open the season as the starting running back since 1943. He capped his superb first, and what would be only, season in college football by scoring the winning touchdown in double overtime against Miami to give Ohio State its first national championship in 34 years. On Sept. 10, 2003, a little more than eight months after the title game, Ohio State suspended him for his entire sophomore season. Less than two weeks later, Milstein filed the lawsuit that would challenge the NFL’s policy.
Alan Milstein and Maurice Clarett were all smiles after beating the NFL in district court in Feb. 2004. Three months later, the decision would be overturned in circuit court. (AP photo)
In Feb. 2004, Clarett scored a victory in district court, briefly opening entry into the NFL draft for underclassmen and preps. However, the NFL appealed the ruling in circuit court. On April 19, 2004, days before the draft, the U.S. Court of Appeals for the 2nd Circuit suspended the district court’s ruling, thus blocking Clarett from the draft. Clarett filed two separate appeals to the U.S. Supreme Court in the days following the circuit court’s decision, but to no avail. Finally, on May 24, the 2nd Circuit made its decision and ruled against Clarett, forcing him to wait until 2005 (when he would be eligible) to enter the NFL. The loss was a crushing blow for Clarett and precipitated his incredible fall. The setback was also tough for Milstein, who has made a successful career out of helping his clients challenge authority and those in power.
“The 2nd circuit was wrong in the way that they ruled on the case,” says Milstein with conviction. “We won at the district court level, lost at the 2nd circuit. We shouldn’t have lost, we should have won.”
Milstein disagrees with skeptics that say football is a different beast than the other pro sports. Surely the physicality of the sport gives the NFL legitimacy in requiring players to be at least three years removed from high school. Right?
“The best hockey player in the world [Sidney Crosby] came out of high school,” says Milstein. “I think the NFL is a kid’s game compared to the NHL as far as the level of violence. If the players are ready to play, they will get drafted. If they’re not ready to play, they won’t make the team.”
Milstein is a staunch proponent of no age limits in professional sports and thinks the policies that professional leagues set run deeper than just meeting their own interests. “I think it’s an outrageous policy [setting age limits], perpetuated by an agreement by the … pro teams to help the NCAA,” says Milstein.
Asked if he would have any interest in challenging the NBA’s policy if he was approached by a client, Milstein replies, “Absolutely.” Spencer Haywood did challenge the NBA — and won — but that was back in 1971. Since the NBA’s new age policy took effect with the 2006 draft, nobody has bothered to contest it in court. Just last year, Brandon Jennings chose to play in Italy for one season instead of trying his luck in the judicial system.
It must be pointed out that this is just speculation and it is unknown if a lawsuit was ever considered by Jennings. Perhaps one day though, a youngster will come along and view litigation as the quickest path to the NBA.
The number of players who made the jump from high school basketball to the NBA without playing in college can be divided into four eras. Starting from Tony Kappen and Connie Simmons in 1946 through to Brandon Jennings here in 2009, prep stars have made an impact, both positive and negative, on the NBA. Let’s take a look at the history of preps-to-pros players:
1946-1962: In 1946, the inaugural season of the Basketball Association of America (which became the NBA in 1949 after merging with the National Basketball League), Tony Kappen became the league’s first player without any college experience. Later that first season, Connie Simmons joined the Boston Celtics as a teammate of Kappen’s and became the second player in the BAA without college experience.
Kappen played just that one season and averaged 6.5 points per game. Simmons, however, enjoyed a 1o-year career and finished with averages of 9.8 points and 6.2 rebounds a game. He won championships with the Baltimore Bullets in 1948 and the Syracuse Nationals in 1955.
Joe Graboski was a contemporary of Kappen and Simmons and was the third NBA player without college experience. Graboski played in the league for 13 seasons and and finished with career averages of 11 points and 8.1 rebounds per game.
1963-1994: In 1962, Reggie Harding became the first player to be drafted into the NBA directly from high school when his hometown Detroit Pistons took him in the fourth round. Harding, however, didn’t enter the league until the 1963-64 season. He averaged 9 points and 9.1 rebounds per game in four NBA seasons. His career was cut short by drug addiction and off-court problems. Harding died in 1972 at the age of 30 after being shot at a Detroit intersection.
After Harding, another player didn’t go from high school to the NBA until 1976. Moses Malone signed a letter of intent to play at the University of Maryland in 1974 but changed his mind after the American Basketball Association’s Utah Stars drafted him that same year. Two years later, the ABA merged with the NBA and Malone played until 1995, enjoying a Hall-of-Fame career that resulted with one championship and three league MVP awards. He remains one of the most successful players to make the jump from high school.
Darryl Dawkins and Bill Willoughby were two of Malone’s contemporaries, as both were taken in the 1975 NBA draft. Dawkins was the fifth overall pick and played until the 1988-89 season, but never fully lived up to expectations. He averaged 12 points per game for his career and his best remembered for being a ferocious dunker (video evidence below) who nicknamed his slams. Willoughby, the No. 19 pick in ’75, had a journeyman career, playing for six teams in eight seasons and can probably be considered as the first prep-to-pro player to be a bust, strictly based on his high draft position. He became the last high school player drafted for the next 20 years.
No high school players were drafted from 1975 to 1995. However, there were several players who enrolled but never played in college before turning pro. Shawn Kemp was by far the most successful of this group of players. Kemp committed to the University of Kentucky in 1988 but never played for the Wildcats, leaving before the season started because of academic trouble. He enrolled at Trinity Valley Community College in Athens, Texas, but arrived too late to be able to play. Kemp declared for the 1989 NBA draft and was taken by the Seattle SuperSonics with the 17th overall pick. He led the Sonics to the NBA Finals in 1996 and was a six-time All-Star during a 14-year career where he averaged 14.6 points and 8.4 rebounds per game.
1995-2005: This decade saw the number of high school players drafted rise dramatically, which undoubtedly influenced the NBA in its decision to enforce an age limit. The era of drafting based on potential was ushered in by the Minnesota Timberwolves when they took 1995 USA TODAY national player of the year Kevin Garnett with the fifth overall pick. Garnett gradually developed into one of the NBA’s best players and turned the Timberwolves into a perennial playoff team. A 12-time All-Star, Garnett has won an MVP award and a Defensive Player of the Year award while being a regular honoree on the All-NBA and All-Defensive teams. He won his first NBA championship as a member of the Boston Celtics in 2008.
In the years following Garnett, the list of preps-to-pros drafted has its fair share of stars:
Analysis: Bryant is arguably the NBA’s best player and has won four championships, two scoring titles, and one MVP award. He is an 11-time All-Star and a regular member of the All-NBA and All-Defensive teams. Though his career started slowly because he was on a talent-laden Trail Blazers team, O’Neal hasn’t been too shabby himself. He is a six-time All-Star and has a career scoring average of 14.3.
Class rating: The only preps taken in ’96, both Bryant and O’Neal were well-worth their draft positions. Both have had embarrassing moments (Bryant with his sexual assault case and O’Neal for the role he played in the infamous 2004 brawl with fans in Detroit) but they’ve enjoyed a great amount of success. Two-for-two gives this class a 100% rate of success.
Analysis: McGrady is a seven-time All-Star, has been named to seven All-NBA teams, has two scoring titles, and was named the league’s most improved player in 2001. Jackson averaged a career-high 20.7 points per game this past season and is a career 15.4 scorer.
Class rating: The biggest knock on McGrady has been his inability to win playoff series. In recent years he has also had to contend with injury problems. Jackson wasn’t ready when the Suns took him in ’97 and didn’t make his NBA debut until 2000 with the Nets. He has stuck around and prospered despite seeing trouble away from the court. He was suspended 30 games by the NBA for his role in the same brawl with Pistons fans that O’Neal was involved in (see video below). That incident was followed in 2006 with Jackson being charged in a shooting after a fight broke out at an Indianapolis strip club. Since we’re not judging character here, but only what a player brings to the table, 1997 also gets a 100% rate of success.
Analysis: Harrington has been solid with a career average of 13.8 points per game, including a career-high 20.7 with the Knicks last season. Lewis, though, has been the most successful of the three preps taken in ’98. He is a two-time All-Star and averages 17 points a game for his career. The third prep taken that year was Korleone Young, at No. 40 overall by the Pistons.
Class rating: Harrington and Lewis are solid pros, if not borderline stars in the NBA. Young on the other hand, appeared in just three NBA games and if not for his lower draft position, would easily be considered one of the biggest busts among preps who tried to turn pro. Two out of three gives this class a 66.7% rate of success.
1999-2001
Analysis: Of the nine preps taken during this dry three-year stretch, none can really be considered to be among the upper echelon of NBA players. In 1999 we saw Jonathan Bender (No. 5) and Leon Smith (No. 29). In 2000 there was Darius Miles (No. 3) and DeShawn Stevenson (No. 23). Finally, in 2001, the five preps taken were Kwame Brown (the first prep to go No. 1), Tyson Chandler (No. 2), Eddy Curry (No. 4), DeSagana Diop (No. 8), and Ousmane Cisse (No. 46).
Class ratings: Bender never played a full 82-game season in an injury-plagued seven-year career, thus making him one of the biggest prep-to-pro busts. Smith didn’t actually play in the NBA until 2001, and even then only saw action in 15 games for the two seasons he was in the league. Behavioral and personal issues cut Smith’s career short. Miles has been OK, averaging 10.1 points per game for his career. He hasn’t played a full season since 2001-02 because of injuries and inconsistency, in addition to a variety of off-court problems. Stevenson has been a role player his entire career and has also seen his name on the police blotter. Brown remains the poster boy for high school players who were busts. Already with his fourth NBA team, his career average is just 7 points per game. Perhaps no other prep player was more unprepared for the NBA than Brown, as evidenced in this Washington Post piece. Chandler has carved a niche in the league as a rebounder and defender but hasn’t lived up to such a high draft position. The same can be said of Curry, who at 13.4 points per game is a solid scorer, but has struggled with conditioning and for someone who is 6-11, 285 lbs., he averages a paltry 5.3 rebounds per contest. Diop is a massive disappointment with a career average of just 2.1 points. Cisse never appeared in an NBA game.
This three-year stretch of bad draft picks caused heartache for many NBA owners and general managers. A lot of money was spent and very little was received in return. Perhaps nothing had a bigger influence on the NBA changing its policy than the disappointing return from these three years. Only because Chandler and Curry are serviceable starters, this three-draft class is two-for-nine for a 22.2% rate of success.
Analysis: Stoudemire was named the Rookie of the Year and is a four-time All-Star. He was named to the All-NBA First Team in 2007 and averages nearly a double-double for his career.
Class rating: Though he recently suffered a serious eye injury that will require the use of protective goggles, Stoudemire is a superb talent at power forward. Since he was the only prep taken in ’02, the class gets a 100% rate of success.
Analysis: James (AP photo) won Rookie of the Year, a scoring title in 2008, and was named league MVP this past season. He is a five-time All-Star and regular honoree on All-NBA teams. Preps drafted with James were Travis Outlaw (No. 23), Ndudi Ebi (No. 26), Kendrick Perkins (No. 27), and James Lang (No. 48).
LeBron James, who appeared on magazine covers before he was a senior in high school, is probably the best example of a preps star who was ready to play in the NBA right away.
Class rating: James’ name comes up in every conversation about who’s the NBA’s best player and his top-pick status was definitely warranted. Ebi and Lang played in a combined 30 NBA games. Outlaw is an integral, if not spectacular, player for the Trail Blazers who has averaged double figures the last two seasons. Perkins, known more for his rebounding and defense than his scoring, won an NBA title with the Celtics in 2008 and is their starting center. James, Outlaw, and Perkins give this class three out of five for a 60% rate of success.
Analysis: Howard is a three-time All-Star and was named the NBA Defensive Player of the Year this past season. Jefferson’s scoring average has gone up with each season, including a career-high 23.1 this past year. The Smiths are double-figure scorers and play key roles on their respective teams. Joining this class were Shaun Livingston (No. 4), Robert Swift (No. 12), Sebastian Telfair (No. 13), and Dorell Wright (No. 19).
Class rating: Howard’s game gets better each year as he asserts his place as the NBA’s best center. Jefferson suffered an ACL injury that ended last season prematurely but should have many bright years ahead. The Smiths should continue to have value wherever their careers take them. Livingston has had an injury-marred career thus far and has averaged just 7.3 points per game, making him a bust thus far. Swift is an even bigger bust and has never played more than 47 games in one season. For a 7-1 center, his averages of 4.3 points and 3.9 rebounds don’t justify his high selection. Telfair has started his fair share of games but poor shooting and turnovers make him an average point guard at best. Wright was slowly showing signs of improvement but spent most of last season injured and remains a bit-part player for the Heat. This class hit on four of the eight picks so it gets a 50% rate of success.
For an in-depth summary on how the class of ’05 turned out, read this earlier post. When healthy, Martell Webster (No. 6), Bynum, C.J. Miles (No. 34), and Ellis are starters for their teams. Louis Williams (No. 45) has averaged double-figures off the bench last two seasons and is primed to start for the 76ers this upcoming season while Gerald Green (No. 18), Andray Blatche (No. 49) and Amir Johnson (No. 56) will need to show more. Thus, this class hit on five of the eight picks for a 62.5% rate of success.
2006 and beyond: Since the NBA changed its draft eligibility policy beginning with the 2006 draft, 26 of the 240 picks (or 10.8%) in the last four drafts have been one-and-done players. If we count sophomores as underclassmen, which they are generally viewed as, then 58 of the 240 (24.2%) picks, or one out of every four have been spent on players with two or less years of college experience. The percentage would be even higher if we were to count foreign players, many of whom start playing professionally as teenagers.
One player did not figure into the above tallies. Who is he? Brandon Jennings, of course. The No. 10 pick by the Milwaukee Bucks in this year’s draft, Jennings opted to take a different path to the NBA, and one that many more players will consider in the future. After being unable to pass an entrance exam in order to play at the University of Arizona, Jennings decided to bypass college and play in Europe for one year before entering the NBA draft. He signed with Italian team Lottomatica Virtus Roma and made over $1 million during his one season abroad according to adviser Sonny Vaccaro.
Already, the ripple effect from Jennings’ move is being seen. Earlier this year, Jeremy Tyler, a standout from San Diego, announced that he was skipping his senior year of high school to play in Europe for two years before entering the NBA draft. In July, Latavious Williams, a preps star from Humble, Texas, backed out of a scholarship to play at Memphis to announce that he too would pursue an opportunity to play overseas. This is only the beginning and the flow of American youngsters overseas will only continue until the NBA and NCAA confer and come up with an age policy that can benefit both their institutions and the talented players involved.
While this project is meant to look at the NBA’s limit on when players can turn pro, it’s also important to compare the policies of other pro sports. Here are some of the major ones:
Baseball: MLB has an interesting dual system. A player is allowed to enter the draft right after graduating from high school, and even later on as long as they don’t attend college or junior college. For those that decide to go to college and play, they are eligible to enter the draft if they are at least 21 years old and have completed at least their junior year of school. In addition, any junior college player can declare for the draft, regardless of how many years of school they’ve completed.
Much like the decision of Brandon Jennings to play in Europe for a year before entering the NBA draft, high school phenom Bryce Harper is taking a different path to the MLB draft. Harper, a 16-year-old standout catcher in Arizona, is forgoing his final two years of high school to earn a GED and enroll in and play baseball at a community college. Harper’s plan will make him eligible for the MLB draft as early as 2010 and could set a precedent for others, much like Jennings did for Jeremy Tyler and Latavious Williams.
Football: To be eligible for the NFL draft, a player is required to be either three years removed from their high school graduation or graduation of the class year with which he entered high school, whichever is earlier. There isn’t an explicit minimum age enforced by the NFL, which explains Amobi Okoye’s unique situation.
Okoye, then 19-years-old, became the youngest player ever taken in the first round of the NFL draft when the Houston Texans selected him No. 10 overall in 2007. After immigrating from Nigeria, Okoye tested into the ninth grade as a 12-year-old, which allowed him to graduate high school at 15, and at 16 become the youngest player in college football.
Former Ohio State running back Maurice Clarett tried to challenge the NFL’s draft policy in court but failed. I’ll examine this case more closely in the next few days as part of an interview with Clarett’s lawyer, Alan Milstein.
Hockey: The NHL may have one of the more complicated draft eligibility policies, but it still allows far more flexibility for youngsters than the NBA or NFL. Any player who turns 18 by Sept. 15 and is not older than 20 by Dec. 31 is eligible for the NHL draft. Further, any non-North American players over 20 are eligible. North Americans who are not drafted by age 20 become unrestricted free agents. All non-North Americans have to be drafted before they can be signed by an NHL team, regardless of their age. Finally, a rule change in 2004 allowed for 18-year-olds from NCAA Division I schools to be drafted and still be able to maintain college eligibility if they don’t hire an agent or play for a pro team. Many of the NHL’s best players, such as Sidney Crosby and Alex Ovechkin, got their start in the league while still teenagers.
Freddy Adu started playing in MLS at the age of 14 with DC United. He is now a regular on the USA men's national team.
Soccer: MLS doesn’t really have any age limits as the draft is open to anyone who declares for it. However, players that put their names in are knowingly giving up some or all of their college eligibility. The league signed then-14-year-old Freddy Adu (AP photo) to a contract in 2004, so age is not a very big issue in professional soccer. In many ways, MLS follows what European clubs do in snapping up the best talent irregardless of age.
The draft this past June saw the number of freshmen and sophomores taken decline significantly from 2008. Last year, 60% (or 18 picks) of the first-round draft picks were freshmen and sophomores. In comparison, this year saw just 13 underclassmen go in the entire draft.
Both juniors (8) and seniors (6) outnumbered freshmen (4) in the first round for the first time since 2006. Two of the four freshmen were selected in the lottery. Tyreke Evans followed Derrick Rose‘s lead and became the second straight freshman point guard from Memphis to leave for the NBA. The other lottery pick was USC’s DeMar DeRozan, who essentially followed the career path of O.J. Mayo by turning pro after one season with the Trojans. Perhaps it’s no coincidence the two schools are being watched closely by the NCAA. Or perhaps it’s just pure coincidence and both programs were very comfortable with taking on one-and-done players.
Brandon Jennings, shown shaking hands with NBA commissioner David Stern, became a pioneer of sorts after playing in Europe for one season and being drafted by the Bucks this past June.
The 2009 draft also had two unique circumstances. The first was the selection of Brandon Jennings (Getty Images photo) at No. 10 by the Milwaukee Bucks. Jennings became the first player who skipped college to play in Europe for one year to get drafted. It’s no surprise that at least two others (Jeremy Tyler and Latavious Williams) have followed his lead. The second unique selection of 2009 was the selection of Patrick Beverley at No. 42 by the Los Angeles Lakers, who then trade him to the Miami Heat. Beverley played at the University of Arkansas before leaving early to play in Ukraine for a season. Now after an unorthodox path, he’ll get to try his hand in the NBA.
Here are the number of selections in the ‘09 draft based on experience (first-round total in parenthesis):
This is the fourth in a five-part series reviewing the NBA draft since 2005.
The number of freshmen selected in the first round of the 2008 NBA draft (10) increased by two from 2007. That means one out of every three selections in the first round was a freshman who conceivably could have already been in the league had it not been for the age limit. The first five freshmen taken would almost certainly have been good enough to enter the draft straight from high school.
Rose, Beasley, Mayo, Love, and Gordon all played significant roles and averaged double figures in scoring in their first seasons. Rose (AP photo) was named the Rookie of Year and helped his Chicago Bulls stretch the defending champion Boston Celtics to a Game 7 in the first round of the playoffs. Mayo led all rookies in scoring at 18.5 points per game.
Chicago Bulls point guard Derrick Rose won the 2008-09 NBA Rookie of the Year award while averaging 16.8 points and 6.3 assists per game.
Despite their fast success, the top two players from last year’s draft have not been able to avoid controversy over their one-year college careers. The NCAA is investigating Memphis‘ basketball program over allegations that Rose’s SAT results were tampered with. Meanwhile, USC is also under investigation for allegations that former coach Tim Floyd paid money to an adviser who then steered Mayo to the Trojans. Both schools could face serious punishments, including the vacating of Memphis’ brilliant 2008 season. The Tigers won an NCAA regular season-record 38 games that season and advanced all the way to the national championship game.
It is likely that similar investigations will continue to pop up every now and then until the NBA and NCAA find a better solution to the current rules. For players who just want toplay basketball and begin their pro careers, college can be seen as a waste of time at this point in their lives. Many only go because it’s the next stepping stone. The growing number of one-and-done players hurts both the college and pro game. Top schools lack continuity in their programs and constantly have to decide the risks and rewards of taking on a one-and-done player. Meanwhile, NBA teams get players who are high on talent but low on experience.
Here are the number of selections in the ‘08 draft based on experience (first-round total in parenthesis):
For the ’08 draft, 35% of the players taken were underclassmen (sophomores or lower). A whopping 60% of the first-round picks were either freshmen or sophomores. It is probably safe to say that the 2008 draft is the beginning of a new era where we will see the majority of first-round picks be spent on freshmen or sophomores. The most talented players will usually come out early and NBA teams will want to snatch them up before going for more polished upperclassmen. The league will covet youngsters because teams can lock them in for three years on the rookie pay scale, saving them millions of dollars before they finally have to spend the kind of cash worthy of star players.
This is the third in a five-part series reviewing the NBA draft since 2005.
The 2007 NBA draft saw eight freshmen get selected, all in the first round. Six of the youngsters went in the lottery. Had the NBA not changed its age limit, most of these players could have been taken a year earlier, assuming they chose to turn pro directly from high school.
Greg Oden and Kevin Durant were certainly ready for the 2006 draft, let alone ’07 where they went 1-2 respectively. Oden fought through injuries to lead a young Ohio State team all the way to the NCAA championship game. Meanwhile at Texas, Durant terrorized Big 12 defenses with scoring prowess and maturity rarely seen in freshmen.
Greg Oden, left, and Kevin Durant went 1-2 in the 2007 NBA draft.
Joining Oden and Durant (AP photo) as one-and-dones in the ’07 draft were: No. 4 Mike Conley, No. 8 Brandan Wright, No. 10 Spencer Hawes, No. 12 Thaddeus Young, No. 19 Javaris Crittenton, and No. 21 Daequan Cook. Oden missed his entire rookie season with injury and battled knocks and inconsistency this past season. He still averaged close to 9 points and 7 rebounds a contest in just over 21 minutes a game. If he can avoid injuries, Oden will easily be a double-double machine and defensive enforcer in the NBA.
Meanwhile Durant has continued his prolific scoring at the pro level, averaging 25.3 this past season. Conley, Wright, Hawes, and Young are regular starters for their respective teams. Young has enjoyed the most success of that bunch with Conley and Hawes making strides and Wright dealing with injuries. Crittenton and Cook have been role players. Among sophomores taken in ’07, Rodney Stuckey (No. 15) and Wilson Chandler (No. 23) have had decent success.
Here are the number of selections in the ‘07 draft based on experience (first-round total in parenthesis):
Nearly 22% of the 2007 draft was comprised of underclassmen, which are sophomores or lower under my classification purposes. This means the percentage of underclassmen taken in both ’06 (18%) and ’07 was lower than the 28% taken in ’05, the last year high school players were allowed in. However, eight of the 30 first-round picks in ’07 were one-and-dones as opposed to ’05 which saw three preps and just one freshman go in the first round. This either means there was more young talent in ’07 or a lesser-talented pool of players.
This is the second in a five-part series reviewing the NBA draft since 2005.
The 2006 NBA draft was the first one that required players to be 19 years old and a year removed from high school. Just two of the 60 players drafted in 2006 left college after their freshman year. Those one-and-done players – Tyrus Thomas and Shawne Williams — haven’t exactly lit up the NBA.
Thomas (AP photo) was selected fourth overall by the Chicago Bulls and is part of their rotation. He started 61 of the 79 games he played in last season and averaged career-highs in points, rebounds, blocks, and steals. Thomas has, however, been inconsistent throughout his career, causing his name to come up in seemingly every trade scenario involving the Bulls.
Bulls forward Tyrus Thomas was one of just two freshman selected in the 2006 NBA draft.
Williams went to the Indiana Pacers at No. 17 and spent his first two seasons there before being traded to the Dallas Mavericks last fall. The NBA has been a struggle for Williams thus far as he has averaged 5.2 points per game and just 13.4 minutes a contest. Among sophomores selected in ’06, LaMarcus Aldridge (No. 2), Rudy Gay (No. 8), and Rajon Rondo (No. 21) are rising NBA stars.
Here are the number of selections in the ‘06 draft based on experience (first-round total in parenthesis):
Following my classification of underclassmen being sophomores and lower, about 18% of the 2006 draft was comprised of underclassmen. Again, that’s not including the foreigners, who are in many cases just as young.
The number of foreigners went up by two from 2005. My guess would be that at least two of the first-round picks made on foreigners would have been made on high school players if allowed. Three foreigners went in the lottery, including the first overall pick Andrea Bargnani to the Toronto Raptors. Besides Bargnani, the first round saw the likes of Mouhamed Sene, Thabo Sefolosha, Oleksiy Pecherov, Sergio Rodriguez and Joel Freeland. Sefolosha and Rodriguez have been OK while Sene and Pecherov have barely made a dent. Freeland is still not in the NBA.
So what can we conclude from the 2006 draft? The best guess is that by changing the age limit, the NBA limited the pool of available talent. Teams gambled on foreigners in the first round or missed badly on collegians with lottery picks (see No. 3 Adam Morrison, No. 5 Shelden Williams, No. 9 Patrick O’Bryant, and No. 11 J.J. Redick (jury’s still out on him)). If high school players had been allowed to enter the draft, perhaps a handful of them would have been lottery picks. We won’t know that for sure until we examine the 2007 draft and see its one-and-dones in the next part of this series.
Latavious Williams, a forward from Humble, Texas, announced last week that he will forgo college basketball to play overseas. Williams made the decision in order to improve his family’s financial situation. He says that Italy, and even China, are possible destinations. If Williams is able to land a pro contract overseas he will join Brandon Jennings and Jeremy Tyler as the third American player to bypass college for a foreign league.
Williams, who was viewed as a top-20 prospect by recruiting service Rivals.com, had previously accepted a scholarship to play at Memphis. In comments made after Williams announced his intentions, new Memphis coach John Pastner seemed supportive.
“I support the kid 100% because he wanted to improve the financial situation for him and his family. You can’t argue with that.”
The move worked out with Jennings, who was taken No. 10 overall in this year’s draft by the Milwaukee Bucks afters spending one year in Italy. Can Williams follow in his footsteps and become a lottery pick in 2010? Only time will tell.
Arin Karimian
